Abstract
Physics-based models of the low-latitude ionosphere and electric
fields can be used to develop methods for enhancing space weather
predictions. In particular, a model of equatorial spread F
(ESF) plasma plumes can be used to develop detailed forecasts of the
motion of patches of signal scintillation.
A two-dimensional field-line-integrated model of ESF plasma plumes
is presented as a first step in Mesoscale forecasts of low-latitude
irregularities. The plasma plume model is embedded in a
geophysically realistic ionosphere-electrodynamics model. The
plasma plume model solves the same electrostatic equation as the
global-scale model but on a high-resolution, embedded grid.
The global ionosphere-electrodynamics model provides
boundary conditions for the embedded grid as well as
unperturbed quantities within the embedded grid, which are used
in chemistry and similarity relations. Methods for using
physics-based ESF models in space weather forecasts are
discussed.